home Page 2006 September

by Webmaster September 30, 2006 12:00

Remarks by Al Gore [2006 September 18]

"Each passing day brings yet more evidence that we are now facing a planetary emergency — a climate crisis that demands immediate action to sharply reduce carbon dioxide emissions worldwide in order to turn down the earth’s thermostat and avert catastrophe.

"The serious debate over the climate crisis has now moved on to the question of how we can craft emergency solutions in order to avoid this catastrophic damage."

Hermann Scheer, A Solar Manifesto

"Today, more than ever before, there is the most urgency for answers to the question of why there are no political strategies, long overdue, to achieve peace with nature."



Home Page 2006 July

by Webmaster July 31, 2006 12:00

Tom Brokaw's Global Warming: What You Need to Know
Shows again Saturday, July 22, 8 pm ET/PT

Special Takes Viewers Around the World to the Front Lines of the Research-

Discovery Channel visits global warming tipping points across the globe, talks to the world's leading experts and examines the latest evidence to determine the facts about global warming in Global Warming: What You Need to Know. Produced by the global alliance of Discovery Channel, the BBC and NBC News Productions, and hosted by award-winning journalist Tom Brokaw, the two-hour special presents the facts and leaves it up to the viewers to determine their own truth about global warming. Global Warming: What You Need to Know premiered Sunday, July 16, 9-11 PM.

"In the case of global warming, knowledge is more than just power - it is a crucial ingredient in how we choose to live our lives," said Jane Root, EVP and GM of Discovery Channel, The Science Channel and The Military Channel, U.S. "As our planet evolves, Discovery Channel is there dissecting the science happening all around us into useful, vital information."

Global Warming: What You Need to Know will decode the buzzwords and arm viewers with an arsenal of clear definitions and visual depictions to explain the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide emissions, CFCs, effects on weather and rising sea levels. Visceral CGI and cutting edge climate computer models will help viewers see into the future at a world significantly changed by unchecked global warming.

The special will take viewers to global warming hot spots where the planet is most affected by climate change - into rushing sub-surface rivers deep in Patagonian glaciers; into the drought-stricken Amazon; on coral reefs ravaged by rising ocean temperatures; into a massive Chinese coal mine, and many more.

The international team of experts, including NASA's top climate scientist Dr. James Hansen, and Princeton University professors Michael Oppenheimer and Stephen Pacala, will discuss the current realities of global warming and predict the future of the planet. Many of the experts will address natural warming and cooling cycles going back 600,000 years, and discuss if the present warming trend is unnatural.

Global Warming: What You Need to Know will demonstrate how much carbon dioxide the average American family produces and present a graphical timeline of global warming throughout history. Finally, the special will look at technical solutions, both great and small, from giant gas injection rigs in the ocean, to more efficient architecture in cities, to what the average American family can do to slow global warming.

Global Warming: What You Need to Know is being produced for Discovery Channel by the BBC and NBC News Productions. Michael Mosley is the executive producer for the BBC. Carol Williams is the executive producer for NBC News. Paul Gasek is executive producer for Discovery Channel.




Home Page 2006 June

by Solarevolution June 30, 2006 12:00
Three New Bold Ideas for Energy Independence and Global Climate Change, by John Kerry [2006 June 26]
"Today, in a speech at Faneuil Hall in Boston, Massachusetts, John Kerry introduced a bold new plan to achieve energy independence and combat global climate change. Kerry's plan challenges America to accept three big ideas to win energy independence and meet the ten year challenge of combating global climate change....

"A safer, more secure energy future is well within our reach. The imperative has never been greater to reshape the future of our energy supply and energy use. First, Kerry will establish an oil savings goal and implement an aggressive set of policies to reach it. Second, he believes we must immediately expand the availability of renewable fuels to run our cars. And third, he believes we need to get serious about climate change and take measures to freeze and reverse our greenhouse gas emissions."

Good start, Mr. Kerry. However,...
  1. Reverse and Stop Emissions that Cause Global Warming

    ... we will progress to ... 65 percent below 2000 emissions by the year 2050.

    If we go that slowly, Mr. Kerry, we will have reduced emissions not by design but because civilization will have ceased to exist as we know it. Consult with Mr. Gore. He gets it.
  2. Mandates for Reducing Oil Consumption

    Senator Kerry's plan will set mandatory targets for reducing US oil use by 2.5 million barrels of oil a day by 2015.

    With 4 years of reserves in the USA and little sympathy from oil producing countries, this goal will be met by Mother Nature and the course of history. (Think China, India.) Targets, mandatory or otherwise, must be much more aggressive than this.
    A. Transportation: Transitioning from Oil Dependence to Renewable Fuels ("renewable fuels to run our cars")

    Nice idea, but "renewable fuels" means choosing between fuel and food. ADM will benefit; others will starve. "Renewable" only applies as long as soil recovery is ignored. In fact, we are not using soil (or water) in a sustainable manner. Converting USA's midwest farmlands to produce ethanol means destroying USA's already depleted soil and pumping the Ogallala aquifer dry. Get a clue, Mr. Kerry.

    Cellulosic ethanol has the potential to substantially reduce our consumption of gasoline.
    ... and destroy life on earth. With no losses from conversion into ethanol, we would have to harvest one sixth of all land-based photosynthesis to maintain USA's lifestyle. China can't come up with enough trees to make chopsticks. What are you thinking, Mr. Kerry?

    Switch to electric, which, if supplied by renewables, doesn't have to exhaust the USA's water and soil as your plan does.

  3. Developing Energy Technologies for the Future
    Sounds good. But you suggest $20 Billion. Arnold Schwarzenegger came up with $3 billion just for California, and that's pathetic. If you don't grasp the magnitude of the problem, we're in trouble. If you grasp the magnitude but you're afraid to lay it out plainly, we're in trouble.

Mr. Kerry, go see An Inconvenient Truth again.

“We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with lost opportunity. The ‘tide in the affairs of men’ does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: ‘Too late……

Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.



Home Page 2006 April

by Webmaster April 30, 2006 12:00
Since first reading about the work of Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere in April 1994, I have witnessed a great awakening of interest and understanding of the global Hubbert Peak. Now we are entering into a new phase; even the President of the United States has acknowledged that an oil problem exists.

As energy costs rise, we are seeing a remarkable resurgence of new energy solutions. Old ideas are being dug up from the trash heap of history and enthusiasts are promoting perpetual motion machines, cold fusion, nuclear power, tar sands, "zero-point" energy and ethanol. Clean This and Smart That, Sustainable Solutions and Carbon-Neutral Technologies. Billionaires and mad scientists alike are seeking their way in uncharted waters, sometimes protected - at least until they plow our future into the ground - from the Second Law of Thermodyamics by government subsidies.

In this confusing arena, it is hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. In the USA, a self-appointed "national" commission with a big budget cites a fraudulent study to advance their hidden agenda, and well-meaning policy wonks (who know how to do library research but didn't do so well in high school algebra) gobble it up as if it were gospel.

We could stand by and watch from the sidelines if we had plenty of time and resources to rearrange things before the big crunch hits - say when global oil supply declines by 10-20% and everybody starts freaking out. Unfortunately, a temporary "transitional" solution could be more damaging than doing nothing. We would adjust to alternative fuels - tar sands, coal-to-liquids, ethanol, who knows what - and then these sources would run dry too. Then we would be completely in over our heads, even deeper than we are now, because we would have exhausted all the easy fossil fuels as well as the marginal sources (with more associated greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fossil fuels) without having built a viable, sustainable solution. This we cannot afford to do. We have to get it right. And there is no time to waste.

How do we go forward? Answers must come from careful analysis of energy alternatives based on scientific fundamentals, not expedient economic metrics. It is tempting but altogether too dangerous to base societal-level energy investments on economic models shaped by the policies which are causing the status quo to fail in the first place.

Many factors are critical to success, keeping the decision matrix full of complexities. I want to highlight just two key issues for the moment, and refer you to a matrix if you want to investigate options in greater depth. These two key issues are scalability and net energy.

Due to the visibility of the US presidency, two proposed responses to peak oil are receiving a great deal of attention - hydrogen and ethanol. The "hydrogen economy" is also a favorite theme in Europe. However, though it is represented as a potential energy solution, hydrogen doesn't even qualify as an energy source - it must be created at considerable thermodynamic penalty from natural gas, electricity, or other sources. Ethanol - from corn, sugar cane or cellulose - requires prodigious amounts of fossil fuel for processing and cannot be brought to scale without destroying our planet's remaining forests, cultivated lands and aquifers.

We can address the scalability of unconventional fossil fuel options, nuclear power, or renewable energy solutions by considering the ultimate recoverable amounts of fuels (including uranium) versus the staggering amount of sunlight that is imparted to the earth on a continuous basis. For example, all the conventional oil that has ever been consumed is equivalent to the energy of the sunlight intersecting our earth's surface (178,000 TeraWatts) for 12 hours. Turning then to the various forms of solar energy, in comparison to the average 13 TeraWatts (TW) of power actively produced by human ingenuity, it has been determined that, on land, the theoretical limit of photosynthesis is 7-10 TW, wind energy is 2-4 TW on land (more over water), hydroelectric is 0.7 TW and direct solar is at least 60 TW, making direct sunlight the most scalable source - if humanity can perfect the instruments at sufficiently large scale to convert sunlight into useful thermal, mechanical and electric energy.

Net energy can be likened to interest on a loan. Higher interest rates mean better returns; if your bank's interest rate is negative, your bank deposits shrink. Net energy returns of 100:1 in the early days of the oil bonanza made societal transformation possible. But now energy return on energy invested for new oil discoveries is typically 5:1 and declining, and because of poor uranium ore quality, the return for nuclear energy is of the same order, even before consideration of long term consequences. So, regardless of price and supply volatility, it makes sense to find alternatives which have a higher net energy yield. Such alternatives exist: at 50:1 or more, wind energy can deliver yields at the same order of magnitude as the oil fields of old. At 40:1, the latest thin-film solar cells can run circles around new oil in terms of net energy yield.

If we squander our remaining fossil energy reserves, either in profligate consumption or into solutions with poor energy yields, we risk global economic collapse. It is essential that we invest the energy in our finite fossil fuel reserves into solutions which can lift us out of the depletion cycle onto a stable, sustainable platform. [Ed.]



Home Page 2005

by Webmaster December 31, 2005 12:00

Prepare for Peak Oil Now, by Richard Heinberg, AlterNet [2005 November 14]

"Oil is a finite resource -- and the decline of world oil production is predicted to occur anytime within the next 30 years. To avoid the worst-case scenario, we must begin today to reduce our dependence on oil."

Full text of landmark document now available: Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, Chief Consultant (General Geology), Exploration and Production Research Division, Shell Development Company, Publication Number 95, Houston, Texas, June 1956, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956.

A timely message that was told earlier but couldn't be heard above the noise of saber rattling ...

"... I want to have an unpleasant talk with you about a problem unprecedented in our history. With the exception of preventing war, this is the greatest challenge our country will face during our lifetimes. The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly.

It is a problem we will not solve in the next few years, and it is likely to get progressively worse through the rest of this century.

We must not be selfish or timid if we hope to have a decent world for our children and grandchildren.

We simply must balance our demand for energy with our rapidly shrinking resources. By acting now, we can control our future instead of letting the future control us...." more ...

Energy Policy: A world with less oil, Seattle Post-Intelligencer Editorial Board [2005 July 11]
"The United States still needs a transformative energy policy, one that moves consumers away from oil. ... But the first step toward energy independence is the recognition that the world's oil supply will soon decline...."
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Discusses Peak Oil--the End of Cheap Oil--with President Bush at the White House [2005 June 29]
"Congressman Bartlett has discussed peak oil extensively in the past seven weeks in a series of Special Order speeches to the U.S. House of Representatives. Copies of text, charts and video of peak oil speeches and presentations are posted on Congressman Bartlett’s website... "
Bill Clinton on Life after the Presidency, on Talk of the Nation [2005 June 3]
"We can create all these jobs in America with a clean energy future."
When the wells run dry, We use more oil than we find, and if producers are fixing their figures the end could be closer than thought, by Adam Porter, The Guardian [2005 May 25]
"Predicting the end of the age of oil can be a sticky business. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo), a collection of industry figures, politicians and academics, this week held its annual meeting at the Gulbenkian Museum in Lisbon..."
Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Roger Bezdek, MISI, Robert Wendling, MISI for the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the US Department of Energy [2005 February]
"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked, by Adam Porter [2005 February 22]
"As oil prices remain above $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, 'we may have already passed peak oil'."

Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit, by Javier Blas and Kevin Morrison in London [2005 February 16]
"The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries signalled a significant tightening of oil markets towards the end of this year, warning on Wednesday it would have to pump close to its maximum capacity next winter to meet rising demand from China against the backdrop of slowing Russian production."
U.S. Energy Policy: A Declaration of Interdependence, by David J. O'ReillyChairman and CEO, ChevronTexaco Corporation [2005 February 15]
"Simply put, the era of easy access to energy is over. In part, this is because we are experiencing the convergence of geological difficulty with geopolitical instability... [W]e are seeing the beginnings of a bidding war for Mideast supplies between East and West."
[Note: By reading this carefully, one can discover that the head of a major oil company is aware of the impending oil crisis. Editor.]
Vulture Capitalists, by Mobjectivist [2005 January 30]
"A couple of venture capitalists, Peter Huber and Mark Mills, have written an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal Online arguing that conventional oil depletion will lead us to alternative non-conventional oil sources as soon as the market finds them cost effective. The scary thing is that the authors are not only venture capitalists but also a PhD in Mechanical Engineering and a physicist, respectively.

"Maybe we should contact the schools the authors went to so we can ask to have their degrees retracted? I say that because what follows is my sentence-by-sentence deconstruction of the entire article. I count a couple of truthful assertions in the entire commentary. Not a good batting average for engineering...."



Home Page 2004

by Webmaster December 31, 2004 12:00
Oil Production and Consumption for Certain Countries
"These graphs show the relative oil availability and oil demand amongst certain countries whose strategic interests may be in conflict."
New Oil Projects Cannot Meet World Needs This Decade, by Oil Depletion Analysis Centre [2004 November 16]
"World oil supplies are all but certain to remain tight through the rest of this decade, unless there is a precipitous drop in demand, according to the results of a study by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC).

"The study found that all of the major new oil-recovery projects scheduled to come on stream over the next six years are unlikely to boost supplies enough to meet the world’s growing needs."

Over a Barrel, by By Paul Roberts in Mother Jones [2004 November]
"Experts say we're about to run out of oil. But we're nowhere near having another technology ready to take its place."
Transcript of bin Ladin's speech, by [2004 October 30]
"Following is the English transcript of Usama bin Ladin's speech in a videotape aired by Aljazeera on Friday 29 October. In the interests of authenticity the transcript, which appeared as subtitles at the foot of the screen, has been left unedited."
"Why have you listed up Bin Laden's Speech on your Web Site?"

Pump Dreams: Is energy independence an impossible goal? by John Cassidy [2004 October 4]

" '... to talk about energy independence is foolish. The two candidates, with due respect, are lying to the people, or they don’t know what they are talking about.'”

The Coming of Deindustrial Society: A Practical Response, John Michael Greer [2004 October 5]

"With the coming of Peak Oil and the beginning of long-term, irreversible declines in the availability of fossil fuels (along with many other resources), modern industrial civilization faces a wrenching series of unwelcome transitions. This comes as a surprise only for those who haven't been paying attention." (See also The Long Road Down: Decline and the Deindustrial Future by the same author.)

Airlines' High Fuel Costs Expected to Push the Industry to Hefty Loss, Wall Street Journal (subscription required) [2004 September 27]

"The International Air Transport Association said it expects the global airline industry to post an overall loss of between $3 billion and $4 billion in 2004, as high fuel costs outweigh strong increases in international traffic."
This is just the beginning. Air travel is the first aspect of modern living that will succumb to oil depletion.

Transitioning to a Renewable Energy Future • ISES White Paper • Summary (600kb)Full Text (1 MB) [2004 September 21]

"This White Paper provides a rationale for effective governmental renewable energy policies worldwide, as well as sufficient information to accelerate effective governmental policies. It is the thesis of this White Paper that a worldwide effort to generate the renewable energy transition must emerge at the top of national and international political agendas, starting now."




Home Page 2003

by Webmaster December 31, 2003 12:00
Hydrocarbons and the evolution ofhuman culture by Charles Hall, Pradeep Tharakan, John Hallock, Cutler Cleveland and Michael Jefferson in Nature [November 20]
"About 100 years ago, the major source of energy shifted from recent solar to fossil hydrocarbons.... Technology has generally led to a greater use of hydrocarbon fuels ... making civilization vulnerable to decreases in supply. At this time our knowledge is not sufficient for us to choose between the different estimates of ... resources of conventional oil."

The Heart of the Matter, by Colin Campbell, The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. [October]

In Sweden, the Uppsala Protocol has been offered as an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol, resulting in controversy as reported in the New Scientist. [October 5]

We have been seeing some new developments in California politics. One candidate in the recall has a unique perspective in light of the coming global oil crisis. [September 22]

Duke Energy President Speaks at North American Energy & Power Conference [September 16]

Price Signals and Global Energy Transition, Andrew McKillop, draft article for STEM forecasting division, Swedish Energy Agency [September]

Why We Need $60/barrel oil. Energy transition, as well an ensuring oil and gas supplies in the short-term, both require much higher and more stable oil and energy prices, by Andrew McKillop, published by Arab Petroleum Research Center [August 16]

Lights Out On Deregulation, Dennis Kucinich [August]

Oil and Natural Gas Resource Assessment: Production Growth Cycle Models, Jean Laherrere, Encyclopedia of Energy [July]

Comments by Jean Laherrere on the article by Paul Holberg & Richard Hirsch: "Can we identify limits to worldwide energy resources?", OGJ [June 30]

Modelling future oil production, population and the economy, ASPO Workshop in Paris [May]

Finally, some hard facts about Iraqi oil reserves [February 26]

Spot oil, gasoline and natural gas prices provided by WTRG Economics [regularly updated]

War 'would mean biggest oil shock ever' "Low global oil stocks and reduced exports from strike-torn Venezuela have boosted prices by more than 30 per cent since late November. The Venezuelan 'outage' has cost 125 million barrels of production, already the fifth biggest supply shock in history, 'which almost entirely explains the current high level of prices'. If the strike continues for two months and an Iraq war lasts a similar time, the cumulative outage will be 600 million barrels, far more than the 400 million taken off the market in the Arab-Israeli war. Faisal Islam, economics correspondent, The Observer [February 2]

M. King Hubbert and His Heirs: A Hubbert Peak Half-Bibliography is a substantial bibliography of documents by Hubbert and his adherents, by Chris Kuykendall, Austin, Texas [January]

US oil stocks evaporate to 27-year low by Heather Stewart, The Guardian [January 16]

Hydrocarbons Resources: Forecast of oil and gas supply to 2050 by Jean Laherrère at Petrotech 2003 in New Delhi [January 9]




Home Page 2002

by Webmaster December 31, 2002 12:00

For several months the Webmaster has been preoccupied with business issues, so less new material has been added than previously. Critically useful information is to be found in the sections indexed at the left. Notwithstanding the looming threat of yet another major war over oil, here are a few highlights from 2002:

Tough Year, but the Oil and Gas Kept Flowing. BP issues its annual statistical review (details, pdf). Highlights: Total world reserves=1050.0 Gb of which OECD=85.0 (old and in the way), OPEC=818.8 (with false reserves a significant fraction), and Non-OPEC=165.8 ("diversity"). And UK "production" is down 6.6% [June 18]

Oil Experts Draw Fire for Warning. Global crude supplies could peak by 2010, warned participants in the two-day conference on oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala University, Sweden, Bruce Stanley, AP Business Writer • Abstracts of PresentationsASPO Press release [

Is FSU Oil Growth Sustainable? Read about the present oil price war between OPEC and Russia, Jean Laherrère, Petroleum Review [April]

"It appears that total [oil] discovery in 2001 was about 8 Gb including deepwater oil, and NGL. Although there remain the eternal uncertainties about the reliability of the data, it appears that the world's oil account has been running a deficit since 1981, as it continues to eat into its inheritance from past discovery....

...Apart from two sizeable finds, the 8 Gb of 2001 came from some 300 discoveries whose average size must accordingly be approaching the lower limit of viability. ... These results from the real world are compatible with the consensus estimate of the size of the endowment ... and confirm the thoroughly flawed nature of the USGS report of 2000 that has misled so many governments and international agencies." C. J. Campbell (Jean Laherrere, Graph) [April]

Now an MIT publication quotes an "expert" from Stanford arriving at an astounding conclusion, with incredible logic: Since predictions of an oil crisis have proven wrong in the past, we therefore have little to worry about. The author got one part right: "Years of cheap oil have slowed energy innovation to a crawl." [January/February]




Home Page 2001

by Webmaster December 31, 2001 12:00
The coming decline of oil. "Amongst the billions of words brought forth by the climate debate over the past years, remarkably few have touched on an issue that ticks behind it like an unexploded time-bomb. This is the probability that world oil production will reach a peak sometime during this decade and then start to fall, never to rise again." [December]


Addicted to oil, The Economist has an opinion: America's energy policy was wrong before September 11th. Now it is even more so. [December 13]

On NPR audio: Oil Experts See Middle East Exporters Regaining Advantage. As oil prices rest at a two-year low, analysts disagree on the future of oil production. But most agree Middle East exporters stand to benefit. NPR's Christopher Joyce reports for Morning Edition. [November 30]

Now you can read that OPEC's clout isn't what it used to be: Globalization reduced our reliance on Middle East oil, and allows us to pursue our goals in the war against terror without fear of triggering an energy crisis." Bill Richardson and Thomas F. McLarty III, San Jose Mercury News [November 4]

This optimistic view of US hegemony is offered in spite of the circumstances illuminated in the New Yorker's Annals of National Security, which tells about a King's Ransom: "[T]he National Security Agency['s] ... intercepts of conversations between members of the Saudi Arabian royal family... depict a regime increasingly corrupt, alienated from the country's religious rank and file, and so weakened and frightened that it has brokered its future by channelling hundreds of millions of dollars in what amounts to protection money to fundamentalist groups that wish to overthrow it.... As for the terrorists ... 'If they do a similar operation in Saudi Arabia, the price of oil will go up to one hundred dollars a barrel.'...." by Semour Hersh [October 22]

Forecasting Future Production from Past Discovery, by Jean Laherrere at OPEC seminar, "OPEC and the Global Energy Balance: Towards a Sustainable Energy Future." [September 28]

And now Afghanistan enters the picture again .... So what am I going to do about it? [September]

new book: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes [September]

"... [A]lthough there was knee-jerk rise in world crude oil prices on Tuesday, the broadly negative economic impact of the attacks, detailed above, is actually bearish for crude prices. A slowdown in economic activity and global travel could reduce crude oil demand at a time when it was already weakening because of faltering global growth...." UBS/Paine Webber Market Commentary [September 12]

"Britain's oil production is at its lowest output levels since 1995, new figures out today have revealed. In June, production dropped to below the two million barrels a day mark..." CNNfn [August 23]

The Oil Peak: A Turning Point. "There have been several short-lived price shocks in the past ... This time the world faces something new, different, permanent and much more serious." Solar Today [July/August]

Estimates of Oil Reserves by Jean Laherrère at IIASA International Energy Workshop in Luxemberg [June 19]

Fuelling the Climate Crisis, The Continental Energy Plan. "There is a dangerous contradiction in the way Canada is developing its energy future. Canada is rushing to expand oil and gas production to feed the voracious American appetite for fossil fuels. By doing so, we are dramatically boosting our greenhouse gas emissions, especially from the proposed expansion of Alberta’s tar sands. The environmental implications are enormous." David Suzuki Foundation [June 1]

World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge [600k pdf] [or html], as published in Population and Environment [May-June]

President Bush's Energy Policy

Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America's Future. Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group.

A sample: Chapter 6 Recommends "re-evaluate access limitations to federal lands in order to increase renewable energy production... use an estimated $1.2 billion of bid bonuses from the environmentally responsible leasing of ANWR for funding research into alternative and renewable energy resources."

Summary of Recommendations [May 17]

Weighing in:


EIA's Outlook for Natural Gas [May 15]

Methane Madness: A Natural Gas Primer. "In 2000 the wellhead price of natural gas skyrocketed 400%. This was the sharpest energy price increase the nation had ever seen, outdoing even the oil spikes of the 1970s. ... So what comes next?" [April 13]

Suncor announced today that it was abandoning the Stuart Oil Shale Project adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. The Shale Oil Project is the first major fossil fuel development in the world to be dropped because of its massive greenhouse problem, Greenpeace said. [April 6]

North American gas production flat, despite drilling boom -- El Paso Corp's CEO. [March 26]

Why the Bush Oil (Energy) Policy Will Fail by Cutler J. Cleveland and Robert K. Kaufmann [March 24]

Alternative Energy Sources by Walter Youngquist [January]

Here's where our new president stands on the issues [January 14]

The New Old Economy: Oil, Computers, and the Reinvention of the Earth, from The Atlantic Monthly [January]

Updates on Natural Gas and the California Energy Crisis [2001]




Home Page 2000

by Webmaster December 31, 2000 12:00
The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Pardee Keynote Symposia • presented by Richard Duncan at the Geological Society of America's Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada [November 13, 2000]

"The Last Oil Shock" -- BBC News, The Money Programme. "Britain faces the prospect of closed filling stations ... There are scientists who believe that the recent problems are just a foretaste of what is to come ... [that] from 2005, the world will face a permanent ... shortage of petrol..." [November 8, 2000]

Vers un Déclin de la Production Pétrolière, by Jean Laherrère in French, given at the Institut Superieur Industriel de Bruxelles, colloque " Energie et developpement durable ". [October 11, 2000]

Will the Oil Sheikhs Kill off Goldilocks? [September 10, 2000]

Interview - Yamani says OPEC accelerating end of the oil era. [September 5, 2000]

Norway Can't Help Curb Crude Prices [September 1, 2000]

The Big Rollover: Les Magoon at the USGS has a minority opinion about the latest USGS report. [August 14, 2000]

U.S. Senate Panel Approves Bill to Punish OPEC. Can anyone explain what would happen if OPEC members withdrew even a small portion of their funds invested in the US in anticipation of maneuvers suggested in this article? [July 27, 2000]

BP Amoco has changed its name and its logo. Depending upon your point of view, BP now stands for "Beyond Petroleum" or "Burning the Planet." [July 25, 2000]

OPEC says would not pump more crude oil. "OPEC reversed course [today] and announced it would not pump more crude oil, sending U.S. prices rocketing by more than $1 a barrel and prompting a plea by the Clinton administration for the cartel to reconsider its action." Reuters [July 18, 2000]

Securing future energy supplies is a pressing problem for mankind." Jürgen Schrempp, chairman of the DaimlerChrysler Board of Management [June 19, 2000]

Evolution of Oil Assessments by Dr. Colin Campbell, demonstrating the trends of his analyses since 1989. [March 23, 2000]

U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000. "Excluding the U.S., the mean (expected) volumes of undiscovered resources are 649 billion barrels of oil (BBO), 4,669 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG), and 207 billion barrels of natural gas liquids (BBNGL). The estimated mean additions to reserves from discovered fields (potential reserve growth) are 612 BBO, 3,305 TCFG, and 42 BBNGL." (Press release) [March 22, 2000]

Science Magazine interprets this new study: USGS Optimistic on World Oil Prospects, "According to the latest estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey, the world has 20% more oil awaiting discovery in yet-to-be-found fields than the USGS estimated 6 years ago. And a newly analyzed category--oil lurking in and around known fields--offers almost as much additional oil as in those undiscovered reservoirs. But even if the additional oil is really there, pessimists argue that it pushes back the global production peak--and the end of the era of cheap oil--by years, not decades." [July 14, 2000]

Dr. Colin Campbell comments on the USGS report. [March 25, 2000]

Oil Supply: The Crunch Has Arrived!! "Only a significant fall in ... expected world oil consumption for 2000 can reduce the risk of a supply shortfall later this year, and then only if OPEC substantially or completely lifts its production quotas in March.... Supply shortfalls are inevitable after 2000 to at least 2003 due to the lack of appropriate investment in the Persian Gulf countries." (Brian Fleay) [March 13, 2000]

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