May 13, 1997

President William J. Clinton
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500

Dear President Clinton:

Re. US National Security Threatened by a New Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Countries (“AMPEC”)

As you know, we Americans now import more than 50% of the petroleum we use. In fact, in 1995 18% of our imports came from the Muslim Middle East alone, and 27% from all the Muslim exporting countries.

Moreover, in 1995 40% of Europe’s petroleum imports came from the Middle East, and 58% from the Muslim exporting countries. In Japan, 77% came from the Middle East, and 92% from the Muslim exporting countries.

The percentage of World petroleum exports from Muslim countries will, willy-nilly, continue to increase until (perhaps by 2010) the Muslim countries will control nearly 100% of the World’s petroleum exports. This situation was revealed in my study, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle: Encircling the Production Peak,” presented on 9 May 1997 at Princeton University. See especially Figures 2-4 (to be published in the 1997 Space Studies Institute Conference Proceedings - Attachment #1).

Significantly, after reading my SSI paper — a French petroleum geologist called and requested a forecast of the year that the petroleum production of the World’s 19 Muslim countries will exceed the production of all 181 non-Muslim countries. Per my forecast, this ‘cross-over’ will occur in 1999 (Attachment #2).

At Princeton, I gave the following “Thought Experiment”:

What if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat met with representatives from each of the 19 Muslim petroleum exporting countries and proposed an entirely new organization called the “Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Nations” — “AMPEC” for short?

This proposal alone could cause World stock markets to fall 50% in one day. And crucially, it could ignite both (1) a World Petroleum War, and (2) a World Holy War (called a “Jihad” by Muslims). I view an “AMPEC shock” as looming likely because powerful Muslim forces are pushing Mr. Arafat (and others) further every day.

Please be advised.


Richard C. Duncan Ph.D., Director

Attachments (2)